|
Chávez Goes
Over the Line, but Pulls Back
|
|
 |
Venezuela's President Hugo
Chavez has taken over from
Fidel Castro the mantle of
Latin America's leading
opponent of the United
States, which remains the
largest customer for
Venezuela's oil.
Mr. Chavez, a former colonel
first elected in 1998 on a
populist platform, has
carried out a series of
steps that he says are
reshaping his country's
economy to match his vision
of "21st century socialism."
He has sought to counter
American influence in the
region, seizing control of
the oil assets of American
and European energy
companies, and in other ways
consolidating state control
over the economy and
nationalizing telephone and
electricity companies. He
proclaimed a "Bolivarian
revolution," named for the
hero of Latin American
independence, and proclaimed
the United States to be a
threat, in part because of
its indirect support for a
coup that briefly ousted him
in 2002. Yet despite the
increasingly heated rhetoric
- Mr. Chavez proclaimed
President Bush to be "the
devil" in an address to the
United Nations - the
business ties between the
two countries remained
strong through his first
term. After Mr. Chavez's
reelection in 2006, he took
a harder line toward foreign
ownership, and direct
foreign investment in
Venezuela plunged by $543
million that year.
Venezuela's economy was
buoyed by historically high
oil prices and its $25
billion in reserves, but a
budget deficit began to
widen as growth slowed.
While Mr. Chavez is popular
with a majority of voters,
Venezuelan society remains
deeply polarized. His
supporters credit him with
channeling oil revenues to
the poor through an array of
social welfare programs.
Critics, however, say his
government is adopting
measures that limit freedom
of expression and lacks
transparency in dealing with
private industry. Alliances
with leftist governments in
Latin America, like Cuba and
Bolivia, and outside the
region with Iran and Belarus
point to continuing
political tension with the
United States.
|
|
|
CARACAS, Venezuela (By Simon Romero, NYTimes) June
10, 2008 — President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela started this month as the most
prominent political supporter of Colombia’s largest rebel group and a fierce
defender of his own overhaul of his nation’s intelligence services. But in the
space of a few hours over the weekend, he confounded his critics by switching
course on both contentious policies.
In doing so, Mr. Chávez displayed a willingness
for self-reinvention that has served him well in times of crisis throughout his
long political career. Time and again, he has gambled by pushing brash positions
and policies, then shifted to a more moderate course when the consequences
seemed too dire.
And while Mr. Chávez has been accused of
speaking like an autocrat and of trying to rule like one, his recent actions
confirm that Venezuela’s democracy, however fragile it may seem at times, still
serves as a check on the president’s wishes.
Few issues illustrated the resilience of
dissent in Venezuela like the debate around Mr. Chávez’s intelligence law, which
would have abolished the secret police and military intelligence and replaced
them with new intelligence and counterintelligence agencies. Drafted in secret
and enacted through a presidential decree, the breadth of the law shocked Mr.
Chávez’s political opposition.
The law would have forced judges in Venezuela
to support the intelligence services and required citizens to cooperate with
community-monitoring groups, provoking widespread fears that the government
wanted to follow Cuba in creating a societywide network of informants whose main
purpose was to nip antigovernment activities in the bud.
Henry Rangel Silva, the head of the secret
police, appeared on state television to defend the law, but ended up making
matters worse when he acknowledged that his spies were already tracking
political candidates, a revelation that appeared to reinforce concerns that the
aim of the intelligence overhaul was to quash challenges to Mr. Chávez’s rule,
which is settling into its 10th year.
The uproar in reaction to the law was intense,
coming from human rights groups, news organizations, Roman Catholic leaders and,
of course, editorial cartoonists who immediately labeled the law with a name
that stuck, “the Getsapo Law,” a play on the words Gestapo and sapo, which
literally means frog in Spanish but in Venezuelan slang translates as snitch.
With regional elections scheduled this year,
Mr. Chávez may have wanted to limit the potential damage of the backlash to his
Socialist party’s candidates. But he may also have recognized a good time to
withdraw a law that, in his own words, had passages that were “indefensible.”
Mr. Chávez convened a commission to rewrite the most polemical parts of the law.
“Chávez has incredible political instincts,”
said Fernando Coronil, a Venezuelan historian at the University of Michigan. “He
has shown to have had, with few exceptions, the pulse of the country, to read
its changing political mood better than anyone else.”
That said, Mr. Chávez has seemed tone deaf to
that mood at times. In December, voters narrowly rejected his broad
constitutional overhaul that would have vastly expanded his powers. But Mr.
Chávez has proved astute enough to know when his policies do not find enough
support, as when he recently withdrew a Socialist-inspired school curriculum and
an increase in bus fares.
Indeed, the national temperament is now much
less buoyant than in December 2006, when voters re-elected Mr. Chávez to a
six-year term, and his handlers may have recognized the shift. Despite record
oil prices, economic growth is slowing and inflation is soaring. The
nationalization of telephone, electricity, oil and steel companies has scared
off foreign investment. While shortages of some items have eased, many basic
food items remain in short supply.
Amid these woes, propaganda billboards with the
president’s image have become much less ubiquitous on the streets of Caracas
than just six months ago, as if to deflate his cult of celebrity a bit.
Mr. Chávez’s shift in his policy on the
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, to the point of calling on them
to end their guerrilla war, suggests a similar ability to recognize when some of
his gambles are not paying off. Claims have mounted in recent weeks that Mr.
Chávez’s government tried to provide financing and arms to the FARC, accusations
adamantly denied by Venezuela.
But in the face of the recent killing of
several FARC commanders, coupled with Colombia’s capture of a Venezuelan
military officer accused of providing ammunition to the FARC, Mr. Chávez may
have recognized that his call for other countries to recognize the guerrillas as
a legitimate force was potentially isolating for Venezuela, especially if proof
emerged of military or financial support for the rebels. That could have serious
economic consequences, including American sanctions on trade, a thorny issue for
both countries given Venezuela’s position as a leading supplier of oil to the
United States.
Some of Mr. Chávez’s critics say he may have
had his international standing in mind, with the FARC increasingly viewed as a
marginalized force both militarily and ideologically. “Chávez’s change of
tactics is a way for him to buy his way out of a situation in which Colombia
presents a case against him in a venue like the Organization of American
States,” said Diego E. Arria, a former Venezuelan envoy to the United Nations.
| |
|
Grupo Jon Garrido
Global Economic Development Services
Phoenix, Arizona, USA
Jon@JonGarrido.com
602.244.1000 |
|
|
